Infidel Cowboy: Bush Landslide Gaining Speed

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Bush Landslide Gaining Speed

update: Hindrocket of Powerline fame also notices the surge in support among younger voters:

Interesting. In some ways, the President whom Bush most resembles is Ronald Reagan. Young people were always Reagan's strongest demographic. In this election, it may be that young people, who tend to be optimistic and confident by nature, are turned off by John Kerry's defeatism. It may be, too, that young people have less solid connections to either party than older voters, and so view Kerry (and Bush too) more objectively.

I think these are good arguments for why younger voters are supporting Bush. Another may be that many young people know some soldiers that were classmates who are now serving in the military. Soldiers and their supporters alike are sick of hearing the smears made against the military by those who claim Abu Ghraib was the norm and are cognizant of the claims by the SBVT that Kerry is one who has slimed the military before.

update: More interesting analysis here and here. Even Teresa can't spin this as good news.

original post:
CNN/Gallup shows Bush opening an 8 point lead among likely voters. Even more interesting, it is showing him with a 13 point lead among registered voters. Why is that interesting? Well, it reverses last weeks results, which showed a 13 point lead among likelies and an 8 point lead among registereds. That 13 point lead among likelies last week was dismissed by Michael Moore:

The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead -- and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling "likely voters." "Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week.You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

So what to make of this? Why despite having larger number of registered votes in his party is Kerry farther behind among registered voters than likely voters? I think the answer is obvious - Democrat voters are realizing that Moore was right about one thing:

Dammit, of COURSE Kerry's [he's] a lousy candidate -- he's a Democrat, for heavens sake! That party is so pathetic, they even lose the elections they win!

It seems to me that the discrepancy of numbers of registered voters by party compared to these poll results is best explained by large numbers of registered Democrats who don't intend to vote at all. They used to be anybody but Bush voters until the Kerry campaign started to implode, now they will just sit this one out. Moore's assertion that the polls are wrong because young people aren't being counted, shows how out of touch with reality he is - young voters are supporting Bush. Furthermore, given that Kerry is disillusioning even his own base, it is unlikely that he is going to inspire some illusory hoard of non-voters, that apparently only Michael Moore is aware of, to go out and vote. Lastly, he fails to account for something about those other polls showing a smaller lead - they overcounted Democrats and they failed to take into account the fallout of Rathergate. Mickey Kaus didn't miss it though:

One obvious possible way to half-reconcile the divergent polls, suggested by Rasmussen's robo-survey. Wednesday 9/15, when the probable Danron forgery began to sink in, was a gruesome day for Kerry. The Harris poll (Kerry up 1) stopped Monday. The Pew poll (Kerry down 1) stopped on Tuesday. Gallup (Kerry down 14) includes Kerry's bleak Wednesday.

Obviously if the polls are still divergent, that would shoot down this last argument regarding the impact of Rathergate. Time will tell.

By infidel cowboy · 09.28.04 10:01PM ·

Comments

Funny, when I look at this poll, I see trouble for the President. Specifically, I was suprised to see that Bush's share of likely voters decreased despite the fact that a greater percentage of them identified as 'Republican'.

Personally, I don't put a lot of stock in mid-September polls. My gut feeling is that people will really start to examine who they're going to vote for after the second debate.

Posted by: Andy at September 28, 2004 11:42 AM

You and Teresa may be the last of the great Kerry optimists. However, I find this statistic more compelling than the stock you put in mid-September polls:

In the last four elections, the leader after Labor Day has gone on to win the election - although if you go back further in time there are examples of the race tightening considerably, or even of a major reversal in the last two months.

Not many would agree with you on the importance of the second debate, either:

The accepted wisdom is that, in any case, only the first debate really counts; four years ago Al Gore ruined his own performance by sighing histrionically while Bush spoke. I'm told that Bush has been practising with Senator Judd Gregg, a Republican from New Hampshire, taking the role of Kerry; Cheney's practice opponent is a Republican congressman from Ohio, Rob Portman. Kerry is relying on a lawyer, Ron Klain, but is now spending at least an hour every week reading through Bush's speeches.

The most telling thing about the most recent polls - women and young people, a traditionally stalwart Democratic demographic, are favoring Bush. Kerry is sunk.

Posted by: infidel cowboy at September 28, 2004 01:19 PM

Interestingly, the Economist poll from last week has JFK leading GWB 60-31 among 18-24 year olds, and 45-43 among 25-44 year olds. And 52-42 among women.

Given what we know about normal voting patterns (ie men and old people are conservative; women and young people are liberal), it sounds like the Gallup poll is rogue nonsense...

Posted by: john b at September 29, 2004 05:30 AM

Interesting. Somebody definitely has a rogue poll, but I don't think it is Gallup, since its findings are present in most of the respected polls. The Economist and Investor's Business Daily polls seem to be the outliers. Here, for instance, is some analysis of the Pew Poll:

Pew also reports that Bush continues to gain among women (45-42), and significantly, shows strength among younger voters as well. Bush has gone from eighteen points down to six points in front (48-42) among the 18-29 demographic, one of the key support groups for Democrats. Bush also holds a ten-point edge among Catholics (49-39), another traditional voting bloc for Democrats. Bush leads in all educational strata, all economic demographics about $30k/year, and has a whopping 13-point advantage in battleground states (50-37).

Posted by: infidel cowboy at September 29, 2004 07:32 AM